Deforestation Study: Fear & Despair Pushing Cocoa Farmers Into Unsustainable Practices

Climate change has turned the cocoa industry on its head and farmers are struggling to adapt out of a feeling of fear and despair.

Farmers, one of the groups most susceptible to climate change, are more likely to take ineffective adaptation measures that lead to “climate traps” and long-term vulnerability, a new study has found.

Researchers at the University of Exeter surveyed nearly 3,100 small-scale cocoa farmers in Brazil, whose cocoa industry has not been spared from global climate shocks. They found that fear and hopelessness are driving growers towards strategies meant to build resilience, but which are instead degrading ecosystems and increasing future risks.

For example, they often resort to what they perceive as immediate relief solutions, like shifting from cocoa to livestock farming. Such “maladaptive responses” can temporarily create a sense of control over uncertainties, despite farmers’ awareness that these actions will only worsen climate change and eventually make production more difficult.

“We refer to these situations as ‘climate traps’ – self-reinforcing cycles where people’s perceptions and ecological damage feed into one another, making future vulnerability even worse,” said Lucrezia Nava, assistant professor in sustainable business management at the university, and the study’s lead author.

How Brazil’s cocoa industry went from riches to rags

In the mid-20th century, Brazil’s cocoa industry was vibrant and oozed money and power. The Southen Bahia region was of particular interest to adventurers, its favourable climate allowing cocoa trees to thrive. In the years to come, many cocoa producers gained widespread influence and earned the honorary title of colonels.

However, their descendants have since faced a host of challenges. Cocoa from Asia and Africa led to fierce competition, while land partitioning among heirs diluted control. And in the 1980s, cocoa trees were attacked by the witches’ broom disease, infecting crops and increasing production costs.

Climate change has brought further economic shocks since then. Rainfall reduction is higher in this region than in other tropical areas, while average temperatures have risen by over 2°C in the last 40 years. As a result, in 2015, a severe drought decimated 40 million cocoa trees in Bahia, causing an 89% decrease in productivity in just one year.

Local cocoa producers now make decisions on how to adapt to climate change on their own. While Brazil’s rainforests are crucial in combating global climate change and preserving biodiversity, they’re threatened by rampant deforestation. Cocoa farming can safeguard forest landscapes, but in a crisis, producers might resort to cutting trees for timber sales or clearing land for pasture and livestock farming.

While this may provide temporary financial strain, it’s a significant driver of deforestation and water scarcity. In addition, livestock farming, which exacerbates climate change and global heating due to its extensive resource use and methane emissions, is susceptible to extended drought periods.

However, cocoa producers are more likely to view reforestation – which can protect water sources and help retain soil moisture – as a long-term investment with uncertain outcomes.

“We plant, replant, and it dies. Plant, replant, it dies. There’s no rain,” one farmer told the researchers. “Everything we took care of, everything we watered, everything we did with love… it’s no use.”

According to the authors, these findings challenge previous research conducted in high-income countries, which suggests that the more risk people perceive, the more likely they are to take protective action.

Die of hunger today, or thirst tomorrow, warn farmers

The study, published in the Strategic Management Society journal, further points out that for small-scale farmers, the income from cattle farming is likely lower than from cocoa cultivation, since the former “benefits significantly” from economies of scale. The farmers interviewed also acknowledged the negative impacts of converting cocoa farms into pasture, including the loss of regional identity and the ecological repercussions of deforestation.

The shift creates feedback loops that further reduce rain and deplete water sources. “Because there’s already significant deforestation… there’s no more room for deforestation. There’s already a significant lack of water. In our country, people are already dying of thirst,” said one farmer.

“If this rampant deforestation continues, this lack of awareness on the part of farmers, then in a while, planet Earth will be over,” added another.

The Amazon rainforest is home to half of the world’s tropical forests and over three million species of plants and animals; continued deforestation – both legal and illegal – has put 10-47% of its forests at risk of collapse by 2050. The Brazilian part of the Amazon accounts for the majority of the rainforest’s deforestation, as well as 40% of global tropical deforestation.

Once known as the “lungs of the Earth”, widespread deforestation in the Amazon for foods like beef, soybeans and cocoa has converted the rainforest from a carbon sink to a carbon source. This means it emits more greenhouse gases than it absorbs. In fact, one cattle rancher was fined $50M by a federal court to compensate for damage caused to the rainforest via illegal deforestation last year, in what was a landmark climate change case.

“Negative emotions triggered by the experience of climate change – such as fear and hopelessness – push decision-makers to prioritise immediate emotional relief and short-term survival (avoiding ‘dying of hunger today’) over long-term sustainability, thereby planting the seeds of ‘dying of thirst tomorrow’, despite their awareness of the detrimental consequences,” the study noted.

“The concept is akin to poverty traps, but while poverty traps stem from socioeconomic conditions, the climate traps identified in our research not only entrench economic inequality but also exacerbate ecological degradation, further deepening economic struggles,” added Nava.

“To design effective interventions, we need to understand these emotional and psychological barriers and how they influence behaviour on the ground. That kind of understanding is essential if we want to support long-term resilience for the communities most affected by climate change.”

As global cocoa stocks slump to their lowest in a decade, their prices have reached all-time highs. This has prompted many industry leaders to look to cocoa-free or cell-based chocolate instead, and startups like Voyage Foods, Planet A Foods, Cellva, California Cultured, and Compound Foods stand to gain here.